That’s according to a new report conducted by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), which says that displacement of gasoline and diesel demand will total 96,000 barrels per day (BPD) in 2019.
Interestingly, cumulative demand measured from 2011 to date totals over 352,000 BPD – the annual consumption of countries like Portugal and Peru.
That however must be juxtaposed against total oil demand growth for the same period, which has increased by 12 million BPD to approximately 100 million BPD according to figures from the International Energy Agency.
However, in terms of climate change agreements and carbon reduction policies, the news is good – the volume of oil displaced in the past year is 14 times higher than 5 years ago, according to the BNEF.
BNEF estimates that approximately 2.7 million electric vehicles (EVs) will be sold in 2019, a massive 50% growth, as per BNEF analysts David Doherty and Daisy Maugouber.
“The impact of passenger EVs and e-buses on global oil consumption is growing rapidly,” they wrote.
Bloomberg NEF estimate that electric vehicles could displace as much as 6.4 million BPD of demand. Fuel efficiency improvements could wipe out another 7.5 million BPD by 2040.
More than 75% of the displacement to date has been through the electrification of buses, says the report, with approximately 500 BPD of diesel demand is eradicated for every 1000 electric buses on the road. A mid-sized battery-powered EV would generate 30 times less, or 30 000 EV’s to displace the same amount of demand.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predicted in March that China’s oil demand will peak in 2025, before subsiding as drivers adopt battery-electric vehicles and high-speed rail.