The impact of EVs on energy demand through 2040


Frost & Sullivan has released a new report which analyses the impact of electric vehicles (EVs) on energy demand between 2018 and 2040.

According to the report:

  • The growth of the EV market will drive an increase in energy demand from 11,612.6TWh in 2018 to 19,756.8TWh in 2040.
  • EV sales will increase to 34 million in 2025, 121.2 million in 2030 and 636.7 million by 2040.
  • To cope with the growing energy demand, utilities need to leverage technologies including vehicle-to-grid and peer-to-peer blockchain trading to optimise smart charging and demand response programmes.
  • The majority of utilities in key markets are still exploring options in terms of EV charging and tariffs.
  • The majority of the grid investment is expected to be focused on the distribution side, aimed at increasing the capacity.

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Key recommendations for utilities to remain relevant as the EV market expands include:

  1. Innovating business models to incentivise consumers to charge their EVs. Charging solution providers, utilities, technology solution providers and EV manufacturers must engage in dialogue and working groups to ensure standardisation and availability.
  2. Invest in digital support applications for charging solutions, which provide users with real-time updates on electricity pricing and slot availabilities at charging stations.
  3. Partner with OEMs and battery manufacturers to design efficient batteries that can be used as a valuable grid asset or a backup solution.
  4. Deploy charging infrastructure with distributed energy resources and smart buildings to make the most of the flexibility of EVs while stabilising the electric grid.
  5. Offer a fixed monthly price to the customer for various products and services. These may include EV chargers, smart thermostats, V2G services, demand response, and more.

Vasanth Krishnan, a research analyst for Energy & Environment at Frost & Sullivan, said: “Utilities will play a bigger role in the transportation electrification revolution with offerings such as EV-specific dynamic pricing, integration with decentralised storage units, vehicle-to-anything (V2X), and workplace charging incentives.

“Collaborative efforts between various stakeholders in the automotive and energy value chain are critical for utilities to offer competitive bundled services and products.”

Jonathan Robinson, Research Manager for Energy & Environment at Frost & Sullivan, adds: “China and the US are likely to face a supply gap in the early-to-mid 2030s, while Germany and Japan have around five years longer before the situation becomes critical.

“However this supply deficit is only part of the issue. EV’s will bring considerable variable load onto the grid, which is an opportunity – as long as there is an investment in the 2020s to handle this.”

Click here for more information about the report.