EVs to account for more than half of global car sales by 2040 – BNEF


Global sales of petrol and diesel vehicles are set to continue to fall as electric vehicles (EVs) increase their claim of the global market for technical sales.

Sales of gasoline and diesel vehicles will continue to fall throughout the world as electric vehicles (EVs) increasingly claim a bigger share of the global market for passenger cars, buses and light commercial vehicles, as well as a significant share of the international market for short-distance trucks and vans.

These findings are part of the latest report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). “Our conclusions are stark for fossil fuel use in road transport,” said Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport for BNEF.

In its Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 report, BNEF says EVs could account for as much as 57% of all passenger car sales throughout the world by 2040, slightly up from its forecast last year.

According to the research firm, they expect electric buses to account for 81% of municipal bus sales within the same timing.

As a result, BNEF expects EVs to be cheaper than vehicles based on internal combustion engines by the end of the 2020s in nearly every market in the world, based on upfront and lifetime costs.

“Electrification will still take time because the global fleet changes over slowly but, once it gets rolling in the 2020s, it starts to spread to many other areas of road transport,” said McKerracher. “We see a real possibility that global sales of conventional passenger cars have already passed their peak.”

“Transport is moving into a period of disruptive change, with many different factors coming into play,” concluded McKerracher. “We have incorporated several new elements into our analysis, including an updated EV cost model that includes the cost of a home EV charger to reflect more accurately the costs individuals face to go electric; and a battery chemistry forecast for each of the new segments covered in this year’s report.”