COVID-19 is resulting in sharp declines in the demand of, if not all, the majority of products, lower tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions, and health effects.
On a global scale, the economic impact of COVID-19 is expected to range between $77 billion and $347 billion, or 0.1% to 0.4% of global gross domestic product (GDP).
In a moderate scenario, where precautionary behaviors and restrictions such as travel bans start easing 3 months after the outbreak intensified and restrictions were imposed in late January, global losses could reach $156 billion, or 0.2% of global GDP.
China would account for $103 billion of those losses—or 0.8% of its GDP whilst the rest of developing Asia would lose $22 billion, or 0.2% of its GDP.
Estimated global and regional impact of COVID-19, under different scenarios
|Best case||Moderate case||Worse case|
|As % of GDP||Losses in $ billions||As % of GDP||Losses in $ billions||As % of GDP||Losses in $ billions|
|People’s Republic of China||–0.3||$44||–0.8||$103||–1.7||$237|
|Developing Asia excluding the People’s Republic of China||–0.2||$16||–0.2||$22||–0.5||$42|
|Rest of the World||0.0||$17||0.0||$31||0.0||$68|
|Source: ADB staff estimates.|
“There are many uncertainties about COVID-19, including its economic impact,” said ADB chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “This requires the use of multiple scenarios to provide a clearer picture of potential losses. We hope this analysis can support governments as they prepare clear and decisive responses to mitigate the human and economic impacts of this outbreak.”
For more information about ADB’s analysis, clear here.
The energy transition is a hot topic disrupting the utility industry in Asia and will be a key focus at Enlit Asia which takes place in Jakarta, Indonesia from 23-25 March. For more details click here.